Demography

1. Sources

1.1. Census

1.1.1. "The total process of collecting, compiling, and publishing demographic, economic, and social data pertaining, at a specified times, to all persons in a country or delimited territory"

1.1.2. Personally identifiable Census information cannot be shared until after 72 years after it is collected for the decennial census.

1.1.3. Sponsorship by national government

1.1.4. Universality

1.1.4.1. includes everyone on either de jure or de facto basis

1.1.4.1.1. de jure

1.1.4.1.2. de facto

1.1.5. Simultaneity

1.1.6. Individual enumeration

1.1.7. Compilation and publication of data

1.1.8. Defined periodicity

1.1.8.1. Typically every 10 years

1.2. Potential Changes to Future Census

1.2.1. Web-based

1.2.2. Adding and streamlining racial/ethnic categories

1.2.3. Adding sexual orientation

1.2.4. Adding citizenship status

1.2.5. Implications of census changes?

1.2.5.1. ADD

1.3. ACS (American Community Survey)

1.3.1. Snapshot of a particular time, usually compiled into 1-year, 3-year, and 5 year estimates. (It is a survey administered every year tp 3 million people or 1% of the US mainland.

1.4. Vital Statistics

1.4.1. births, deaths, and marriages

1.4.2. information pertaining to vitals is collected at the state level, and then shared with the feds

1.4.3. Published yearly by the NCHS or National Center of Health Statistics

1.4.4. births and deaths counted on de jure basis

1.5. Census Geography

1.5.1. Census Tracts

1.5.1.1. On average 4,000 people

1.5.2. Block Groups

1.5.2.1. On average 1,500 people

1.5.3. Census Blocks

1.5.3.1. On average 100 people

1.6. Global/International Data

1.6.1. The Population Reference Bureau (PRB)

1.6.1.1. non-profit usually used for academic purposes (TFR, infant mortality, rate of natural increase, and LE at birth

1.6.2. The World Bank

1.6.2.1. goal to "end extreme poverty and promote shared prosperity in a sustainable way"; (age dependency ration, contraceptive use, fertility rates, etc.)

1.6.3. United Nations

1.6.3.1. United Nations Statistical Division

1.6.3.1.1. marriage and divorce, fertility, mortality

2. Fertility

2.1. Fertility Terminology

2.1.1. Cohort Analysis

2.1.1.1. Study of a particular cohort across time

2.1.2. Fertility

2.1.2.1. The production of male and female births (actual behavior)

2.1.3. Reproduction

2.1.4. Sterility

2.1.4.1. Lack of potential to produce birthds

2.1.5. Childlessness

2.1.6. Fecundity

2.1.6.1. Potential of producing births

2.1.6.1.1. Fecund age for women is typically 15-49, for mean 15-69; peak age for females is between 20-25, starts to decline slightly in 30s and even faster in 40s

2.2. Why is Fertility more difficult to study than Mortality?

2.2.1. One person may have more than one birth but will only die once

2.2.2. The entire population is not subject to giving birth

2.2.3. Fertility behavior is more associated with social dynamics than is mortality

2.2.4. Births affect only the initial stage of the age distribution, whereas deaths affect all cohorts

2.3. Measures

2.3.1. Crude Birth Rate

2.3.1.1. (# number of births *Z/# number of population midyear*Z)*1,000

2.3.1.2. Crude because it takes into account all of those in the population who are not at risk for childbearing (men and children)

2.3.1.3. CBR > 30 is high

2.3.1.4. CBR < 15 is low

2.3.2. General Fertility Rate

2.3.2.1. Same as CBR but restricts denominator to only those in the population who are women ages 15-49

2.3.2.2. CBR * 4.5

2.3.3. Age-Specific Fertility Rate

2.3.3.1. Use Cohorts of Five years each

2.3.3.2. Measured by births per women in cohort divided by midyear population of all such women in cohort times 1,000

2.3.4. Total Fertility Rate

2.3.4.1. Estimates the total number of children a given woman would have if she lived through all her reproductive years and was subject to a given set of ASFR.

2.3.4.2. Calculated by summing the ASFR's and multiplying by the width

3. Race/Ethnicity

3.1. Race

3.1.1. Socially consturcted, based on physical attributes, fluid phenomenon

3.2. Ethnicity

3.2.1. Based on belief in common ancestry, kinship, culture, and often shared language

3.3. Data Collection on Race/Ethnicity

3.3.1. Reasons for

3.3.1.1. Legislation

3.3.1.2. Healthcare

3.3.1.3. Population composition and processeses

3.3.1.4. Life expectancy differences

3.3.1.5. Health differences (Black women childbirth deathrate)

3.4. Cultural Amalgamation

3.5. Cultural Seperatism

3.6. Majority-Minority

4. Migration

4.1. Theories of Migration

4.1.1. The Physical Costs Model

4.1.2. The Information Model

4.1.3. THe Personal --- Model

4.1.4. Individual Expectations Model

4.1.5. Community and Kinship Ties Model

4.1.6. Distance Model

4.1.7. income Model

4.1.8. push and pull factors

4.2. Types

4.2.1. Internal

4.2.2. International

4.3. mover vs migrant

4.4. Concepts

4.4.1. mover

4.4.2. migrant

4.4.3. out-migration

4.4.4. local movement

4.4.5. in-migration

4.4.6. Return migration

4.4.7. net migration

4.4.8. migration stream

4.4.9. migration counterstream

4.4.10. differential migration

4.5. Measures

4.5.1. In-migration rate

4.5.1.1. (I/P) * 1000

4.5.2. Out-migration rate

4.5.2.1. (O/P) * 1000

4.5.3. Net Migration rate

4.5.3.1. [(I-O)/P] * 1000

5. Gender

5.1. GII (Gender Inequality index)

5.1.1. measures reproductive health, labour market participation, and empowerment

5.2. GDI (Gender Development Index)

5.2.1. measures longevity, education, and income

5.3. Modes of lowering United States GII

5.3.1. Federal Level

5.3.1.1. Recent percentage of women in Congress shows promising improvements, this could continue to rise

5.3.1.2. Paid leave for mother and fathers (extend maternity leave to minimum 1 year)

5.3.1.3. Raise the percentage of women in the workforce to over 80%

5.3.1.4. Childcare subsidization

5.3.2. State Level

5.3.2.1. Equal pay by law: demanding companies produce a certificate proving men and women are paid equally for similar work

5.3.3. Community Level

5.3.3.1. Female apportionment on company boards (meet certain quota)

5.3.3.2. unbiased hiring process

5.3.3.3. flexible work hours

5.3.3.4. cultivating female leaders and sharing success stories

5.3.3.5. inclusive job postings and broadening of recruitment horizons

5.3.3.6. female mentor led programs

5.3.3.7. Girls in Stem education programs to better prepare and encourage and engage females for future participation in our most critical market sectors

6. Early Demographers

6.1. Malthus

6.1.1. Humans are driven to reproduce; Population growth, without checks, goes geometrically, while food grows arithmetically. Major consequence of population growth is poverty.

6.2. Karl Marx

6.2.1. Each point in history has its own law of population that determines the consequences of population growth

6.3. John Stuart Mill

6.3.1. Accepted Malthus but argued that standard of living determines fertility levels. Mill also felt that the population would stabilize naturally.

6.3.1.1. "In proportion as mankind rises above the condition of the beasts, population is restrained by the fear of want, rather than by want itself. Even where there is no question of starvation, many are similarly acted upon by the apprehension of losing what have come to be regarded as the decencies of their situation in life"

6.4. Dumont

6.4.1. "social capillarity" - the desire to increase individuality for personal wealth" - to move up the social hierarchy, having few to no children are sacrifices to be made. Self-restraint (due to individualism) can reduce fertility, hence stabilize population

6.5. Emile Durkheim

6.5.1. Divisions of labor are related to population growth; primitive societies have limited specialization.

6.6. J. Graunt

6.6.1. Known for constructed the first life table; also observed that more males are born than females and that females live longer; also recognized the phenomenon of rural to urban migration and its importance in London 17th century

7. The scientific study of the distribution, size, and composition of human populations (usually) within the context of three demographic processes: fertility, mortality, and migration.

8. Demographic Transition Theory

8.1. Phase 1

8.1.1. High Fertility, High Mortality

8.2. Phase 2

8.2.1. High Fertility, Declining Mortality

8.3. Phase 3

8.3.1. Births outnumbering deaths

8.4. Phase 4

8.4.1. Low Fertility, Low Mortality

9. Fertility Theories

9.1. Wealth Flow Theory

9.1.1. Fertility is economically driven by family wealth flows. Up flow (parents are reliant on children and thus have more kids) Down flow (children are reliant on parents and thus fewer kids are had)

9.2. Human Ecological Theory

9.2.1. Fertility is dependent on resources. Fewer kids entails more resources and more kids entails fewer resources.

10. Mortality Theory

10.1. Epidemiological Transition Theory

10.1.1. Societal changes that have led to the transition from infectious diseases to chronic degenerative diseases as causes of death.

10.1.1.1. Stage 1

10.1.1.1.1. Pestilence and famine. High death rates among children and low life expectancy (20-40 years). This stage lasted until the Industrial Revolution.

10.1.1.2. Stage 2

10.1.1.2.1. Declines in mortality and increases in life expectancy due to improved sanitation "receding pandemics"

10.1.1.3. Stage 3

10.1.1.3.1. Degenerative and manmade diseases; Declines in mortality due to medical advancements. Life expectancy is high and mortality is primarily caused by degenerative diseases (heart disease, cancer, stroke).

10.1.1.4. Stage 4

10.1.1.4.1. Hybristic stage; Mortality is influenced by individual choices and lifestyles.

11. Second Demographic Transition

11.1. Phase 1

11.1.1. Increasing divorce, fertility decline, contraceptive revolution, stop in declining age at marriage (1955-1970)

11.2. Phase 2

11.2.1. Rise in premarital cohabitation, rise in nonmarital fertility (1970-1985)

11.3. Phase 3

11.3.1. Divorce rates plateau; decline in remarriage; recuperation of 30+ fertility, which pushes period fertility rates up (1985 onward)

12. "Demography is Destiny"

12.1. Phrase coined by Auguste Comte used to describe how demographic trends have future implications on an area, nation and world. "The social, political and economic trends of a nation are ultimately determined by its demographics".

13. Age

13.1. Age-dependancy ratio

13.1.1. Young-dependant population

13.1.1.1. Operationalization (reaching demographic dividend)

13.1.1.1.1. Raise level of contraceptive use and awareness

13.1.1.1.2. elect political leaders who are educated on the topic and willing to engage in open discourse about their future generations

13.1.1.1.3. Lower TFR to the sweet spot which is between 2.1 and 2.8 children per woman

13.1.1.1.4. focus on female education and empowerment (eliminate gender gap)

13.1.1.1.5. focus on education outcomes

13.1.1.1.6. inform/ social media campaigns that propagate the economic benefits of having smaller families

13.1.1.1.7. Improve sanitation, hygiene, drinking water, and electricity (reductions in infant mortality)

13.1.1.2. Reason for occurance

13.1.1.2.1. ADD

13.1.1.3. Population pyramid will look less like the Luxor and more like the Taj Mahal

13.1.1.4. Measured by (# of children age 0-14/# of working age population aged 15-64) * 100

13.1.1.5. Implications

13.1.1.5.1. a population with too large a number of children and too low to inadequate number of working age people is not going to be able advance economically at any exponential or desirable level as well as address economic disparities.

13.1.1.5.2. reducing this ratio in developing nations, particularly Africa, will result in the alleviation of extreme poverty, a large improvement in quality of life, and a sharp raise in GDP, and lowering of population by the hundred thousands.

13.1.1.6. Usually representative of developing nations, like those in Sub-saharan Africa. Niger is a key example. Its ratio is around 112 - which means 112 child dependents per 100 working age adults.

13.1.2. Old-dependant population

13.1.2.1. Measured by (# of old age pop. 65+/working age pop. 15-64)* 100

13.1.2.2. Usually represented of developed and aging populations, the US is headed toward a startling number, as is Italy and most markedly Japan.

13.1.2.3. Implications

13.1.2.3.1. Shrinking workforce as population ages

13.1.2.3.2. Over-utilization of healthcare resulting in rising costs

13.1.2.3.3. Declining Population

13.1.2.4. Reason for occurance

13.1.2.4.1. ADD

13.1.2.5. Operationalization

13.1.2.5.1. Euthanasia

13.1.2.5.2. Finding social roles for the elderly

13.1.2.5.3. Automation

13.1.2.5.4. Discovering methods for reaching old age with less chronic conditions

13.1.2.5.5. age-friendly cities and communities

13.1.2.5.6. encouraging immigration

13.1.2.5.7. increase retirement age

13.1.2.5.8. increase income tax

13.1.2.5.9. private pensions

14. Types of Demography

14.1. Formal Demography

14.1.1. Demographic outcome estimated by demographic variable

14.2. Social Demography

14.2.1. Our focus, and typically measures demographic outcomes estimated by non-demographic variables

14.3. Population Studies

14.3.1. Non-demographic outcome estimated by demographic variables